Pulsars act like cosmic clocks, emitting beams of radio waves that can be periodically measured on Earth. Einstein’s theory of general relativity predicts that as gravitational waves sweep past pulsars, they should expand and shrink the distance between these objects and Earth, changing the time it takes for the radio signals to arrive at observers. And if the gravitational-wave background is indeed everywhere, pulsars across the universe should be affected in a correlated way.
Rather than build a dedicated instrument, the NANOGrav team took advantage of existing radio telescopes around the world: the Very Large Array in New Mexico, the Green Bank Telescope in West Virginia and Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico (before its fateful collapse three years ago).
In 2020, after more than 12 years of gathering data, the NANOGrav team released results from monitoring the timing of 45 pulsars. Even then, Dr. Siemens said, the researchers saw tantalizing hints of a gravitational-wave background, but they needed to track more pulsars for longer amounts of time to confirm that they were indeed correlated, and to claim a discovery. So the NANOGrav team approached colleagues through the International Pulsar Timing Array — an umbrella organization that includes collaborations based in India, Europe, China and Australia — and coordinated an effort to uncover the gravitational-wave background together.
Fast-forward to Wednesday: Each collaboration is now publishing results from independently collected data, all of which support the existence of a gravitational-wave background. The NANOGrav team has the largest data set, with 15 years of measurements from 67 pulsars, each monitored for at least three years.
The findings carry a confidence level in the range of 3.5- to 4-sigma, just shy of the 5-sigma standard generally expected by physicists to claim a smoking-gun discovery. That means the odds of seeing a result like this randomly are about 1 in 1,000 years, Dr. Mingarelli said. “That’s good enough for me, but other people want once in a million years,” she said. “We’ll get there eventually.”
Marcelle Soares-Santos, an astrophysicist at the University of Michigan who was not involved in the work, acknowledged that while this was early evidence, the results were enticing. “This is something that the community has been anticipating for quite a while,” she said, adding that independent measurements from other pulsar timing collaborations strengthened the findings.
Still, Dr. Soares-Santos said, it was too soon to tell what impact a gravitational-wave background might have on future research. If the signal really was from the slow, inward spiraling of supermassive black holes, as many NANOGrav collaborators believe, it would augment what scientists understand about the way early galaxies merged, forming ever-larger systems of stars and dust that eventually settled into the complex structures observed today.
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