The price of iron ore, the world’s second-most-traded commodity after crude oil, has fallen more than 50% since mid-July. Concerns about Evergrande and its peers have combined with a slowdown in steel production in China that some analysts think could last until early next year. China makes more than half of the world’s steel.

The iron-ore price fell to $94 a metric ton on Monday, its lowest level in 14 months, according to S&P Global Platts, which publishes daily prices. The commodity, which traded above $233 a ton as recently as May, bounced to $107.55 a ton on Wednesday after Evergrande resolved an interest obligation on yuan-denominated bonds also coming due that day.

However, more deadlines loom. Evergrande has an $83.5 million interest payment due on some of its dollar-denominated bonds on Sept. 23. If it misses the payment and can’t make good in 30 days, it could be declared in default.

“If a default were to occur, it would lead to an even more aggressive fall in China’s property construction activity,” said Vivek Dhar, an analyst at

Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Iron ore is at the sharp end of what could be a bruising period for prices of commodities that had been among the best-performing asset classes this year. A global economic rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic and supply-chain disruptions lifted prices for some commodities such as iron ore and copper to records earlier this year.

Jefferies, an investment bank, estimates that China’s property sector accounts for about 25% of the country’s demand for steel and copper and 20% of its consumption of aluminum. The risk is that a sharp slowdown in construction activity in China would lead to a supply glut of commodities that markets elsewhere would struggle to absorb.

Investors in iron-ore miners are already turning skittish. Share prices of

Rio Tinto

PLC and

BHP Group Ltd.

are each down more than 25% since hitting a high last month. The downturn is also a blow to producing countries, notably Australia and Brazil, which are battling to protect fragile economic recoveries from outbreaks of the highly contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus.

Much will depend on China’s response to Evergrande’s problems, and whether the government’s efforts to crack down on borrowing by real-estate developers via limits known as the “three red lines” will lead to more companies running into trouble.

“While some market participants may start to price in a ‘Lehman Brothers’ scenario, we believe this poses a low risk as China is highly leveraged to property developers and is committed to averting systemic risks and the continuance of economic growth,” Macquarie, an Australian investment bank, said in a client note this week.

Jefferies expects China will orchestrate a bailout, including arranging for others to buy finished properties from Evergrande, and may even cut interest rates soon. Still, it thinks iron ore won’t recover as strongly as other commodities, such as copper and aluminum, and has cut its average price forecast for next year by around 30% to $90 a ton.

Even if China steps in to rescue Evergrande, iron-ore prices face other headwinds. Beijing’s target of maintaining crude steel production at 2020 levels has led Chinese mills to reduce activity. Steel output in August was at its lowest level in 18 months, data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed.

China is strengthening controls on air pollution ahead of winter, while some major steelmaking provinces have widened steel-output cuts since early September as part of efforts to reduce energy consumption, according to S&P Global Platts. China’s steel sector accounts for about 15% of the country’s carbon footprint.

“With steel demand from property construction likely to worsen and policymakers still keen to cut steel output, it’s hard to see iron ore prices find support above $100/ton,” said Mr. Dhar, of Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Write to David Winning at david.winning@wsj.com