On paper, things look pretty enchanting: Bumble said revenue for both its namesake Bumble app and Badoo came in above Wall Street’s expectations for the quarter, as did total paying users. Second quarter and full-year guidance for revenue and adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization at the midpoint also beat analysts’ forecasts.

Taken on its own, those numbers sure make it sound like a keeper. But online dating is all about the next best swipe and, at 11 times forward sales, the case for Bumble still looks overvalued, even at a slight discount to its more mature peer

Match Group.

MTCH -2.27%

It comes down to shots on goal. While it operates the number two dating app in the world in Bumble, the company has just two dating apps. Match has more than 10 brands under its umbrella, including Tinder, the highest grossing dating app in the world; Pairs is the largest dating app in Japan, and Hinge tripled its revenue last year and is on pace to double it again, according to Match.

Ultimately, if you are betting on dating as the world opens up, Match simply has a larger grip on the market. It also beat Wall Street’s forecasts for the first quarter, even while one of its most significant markets in India remains highly challenged due to a recent spike in Covid-19 cases.

Apptopia data from February to May this year shows world-wide sessions for Match’s apps have grown at a higher rate than Bumble’s. Sessions have historically been a solid indicator of paid subscriber numbers, according to Apptopia, indicating that Match might show further upside as economies continue to reopen throughout the year. Consider the U.S., where, based on May run rates so far, Apptopia data show new sessions for Bumble will remain near flat from February through the end of May while Tinder’s will see low double-digit percentage growth.

Bumble is working to expand its offerings. The company said on Wednesday that engagement from both men and women is soaring on its BFF feature, for example—a platonic way for its users to meet friends. Eventually Bumble’s more nascent features like BFF and Bizz, a way to make professional contacts online, have the potential to be compelling ancillary revenue drivers for the company. It just hasn’t moved to monetize them yet.

Yet, compared more broadly to other subscription-based service companies, Bumble continues to look expensive. After recent corrections, pandemic beneficiaries like Peloton and Netflix, for example, are now trading at about five and seven times forward sales. Shares of media streamer Roku fetch 13 times, a slight premium to Bumble, but Wall Street is expecting that company to boost revenue at more than twice the rate Bumble will this year.

With multiple public players now in the dating game, investors can afford to have high standards.

Write to Laura Forman at laura.forman@wsj.com