LONDON, England: The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) has issued new guidance, urging UK organisations to tighten their defences, to ensure they stay ahead of a potential cyber threat linked to the conflict in Ukraine.

This follows a series of cyber attacks in Ukraine, suspected to have involved Russia, which Moscow denies.

In December 2015, engineers in Ukrainian power stations found themselves hacked, and Russia was blamed.

In June 2017, Ukraine was the epicentre of an incident with global repercussions. Hackers breached software used to file tax returns. Russia denied any role in this and other attacks.

In the last few weeks, Ukrainian institutions – this time largely government – have been hacked again. Although there has been no proof of who was responsible, U.S. authorities issued a sweeping warning because of “alarming” similarities to 2017, telling all organisations in the U.S. – regardless of sector or size – to take “urgent” steps to reduce the likelihood of a damaging attack, and for anyone working with Ukrainian organisations to take extra care.

In the UK in recent weeks, critical national infrastructure – which includes energy supplies, water supplies, transportation, health and telecommunications – have been warned by the NCSC about specific vulnerabilities known to be exploited by Russian hackers. Based on experience in Ukraine, energy and transport are most likely to be in the cross-hairs, if anything were to happen.

“While we are unaware of any specific cyber threats to UK organisations, in relation to events in Ukraine, we are monitoring the situation closely and it is vital that organisations follow the guidance to ensure they are resilient,” said Paul Chichester, the NCSC director of operations, in a statement accompanying the latest guidance issued last week.

“The Russians will likely initially try hard to keep any of their cyber offensive activity contained to Ukraine – so as not to escalate the conflict with U.S. and NATO at the same time as they are prosecuting a war with Ukraine,” argues Dmitri Alperovitch, founder of the U.S.-based Silverado Policy Accelerator, and an expert on Russian cyber operations

“That calculus may change, however, if they have severe economic sanctions imposed upon them by the West – then the gloves may come off,” as quoted by the BBC.

This is where the risks may lie. If the West does impose significant economic sanctions in response to Russian military action, Moscow could respond by targeting Western economies through cyberspace.

This month, Russia surprised observers by seeming to do just that, publicly arresting members of one group – known as REvil.

This could have been a message, Ciaran Martin, an expert, argues. “Our basic assumption has to be that these (arrests) are cynically timed and designed to show the West that they can control these people should they choose to. If they don’t like certain sanctions or other parts of the Western response, it is possible that some of these criminal gangs get the softer treatment,” as reported by the BBC.

Such a scenario is one of those being considered credible by UK security officials. And if they are struck online, the U.S. and UK will have to work out how to respond – all amid fears of a cyber-conflict that could escalate.